Given the recent increase in Turkey’s rhetoric and action, international observers have a right to be worried that the Syrian conflict, sometimes known as a civil war, could spiral out of control. However, Turkey will not be so bold as to incite a war with Syria. Not while the conditions are so uncertain.
After months of tension along the Turkish-Syrian border, and a recent escalation in cross-border shelling from the Syrian side, Turkey returned fire, nearly bringing NATO into the fold. Finally, Turkey made a move this week that suggested that its tit-for-tat shelling was not an empty gesture. The Turkish Parliament voted to allow the military to carry out offensive operations in foreign countries, a move clearly aimed at preparing for a ground strike into Syria should the situation demand one. The shellings have continued, and while Turkish troops gather near the border, there is still reason for the international community to be calm. Reason dictates that Turkey will not launch an offensive into Syria.
So does the NATO rationale for not entering into conflict, despite an Article V call from Turkey. For some background, if an ally within NATO is attacked, that state has the right under Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty to call for help from the entire alliance in offensive or defensive action. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was hardly itching for a fight in this case, though. He acknowledged,
Syria is a very, very complex society … Foreign military interventions could have broader impacts.
And this is precisely why Turkey would never take the next step. It would be foolish to surrender the facsimile of stability along its border by breaching it and entering into some sort of ground operation amongst a civil war!
On the other end, this begs the question of whether Syria would capitalize on this sensible hesitation and continue to provoke Turkey. On this, again, the international community can breath some kind of sigh. However, this line of thinking goes to a darker place. Should Syria continue to provoke Turkey, the hawks within NATO member states would likely be called in, and overwhelming force would be called upon to crush Syria. It would be very difficult to imagine a successful post-war situation in Syria, as it immediately brings to mind memories of the failed intervention in Iraq. However, Turkey and its allies would at some point be forced to “aggress” to legitimize the teeth of NATO in a conventional sense.
Under what circumstances would Turkey be brought to that point? It would take an egregious breach of the delicate protocol that has been de facto established on the Turkish-Syrian border, meaning an exceptionally heinous act of violence from the Syrian side. It does not appear that any group in Syria has the motive to carry that out, apart from the slim possibility of a desperate Bashar al-Assad attempting to divert attention from a losing effort in its waning stages. According to the theory of poliheuristics, this is a possible course of action should the rebels turn the corner. However, the conflict in Syria is not over, and neither party has a clear advantage. As long as that remains the status quo, or any transition is decisive, Syria will not escalate. There will be no conflict spiral.
The View from the Bell Tower 